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What is the Market Share Indicator?
TIA's Market Share Indicator (MSI) is a simple calculation of the United States' share of a particular country's total long-haul travelers derived from arrivals statistics collected by Global Insight, an economic consulting firm. The MSI shows the U.S. share of a country's long-haul travel market.
Long-haul travel is defined as travel outside of the world-region where the travel originates. For example, travel from Europe to Asia is considered long-haul because it is from one world region to another. The United States is a long-haul destination from all countries, except Canada and Mexico.
Global Insight collects statistics on the global travel market. These statistics include the total number of trips taken by international travelers to over 150 countries worldwide. The MSI calculates the U.S. long-haul share of this global travel market for the 25 countries that generate the most travel to the United States. 
Why did TIA create the Market Share Indicator report and MSI Online ?
TIA created the Market Share Indicator report and its Web based version, MSI Online, to support individual marketing efforts to promote travel to the United States. The Market Share Indicator report lets the entire industry know where the greatest tourism growth potential lies by providing a ten-year time series and a short-term forecast that show:
which countries' outbound travel markets are growing;
what proportion of each travel market is long-haul;
what share of the long-haul travel market visits the U.S.;
how a country's economic indicators trend with its travel market.
Tracking travel market growth trends for U.S. arrivals, outbound and long-haul markets, along with economic indicators can give industry professionals insight into how to invest precious marketing dollars to maximize return. The MSI provides the travel and tourism industry with timely, accurate data to help identify opportunities for growth in the international market.
How is a Market Share Indicator Forecast Determined?
The Market Share Indicator Report forecasts are based on the current Global Insight economic outlook. They are derived using an econometric model for estimating origin and destination travel across over 150 countries. This model is the first of its kind to be built around a consistent set of macroeconomic and demographic forecast drivers. Global Insight's economic forecasts for real income, exchange rates, prices, and population are used to determine demand for travel by origin markets. Origin markets are then linked with destinations according to current travel trends, and weighted for all destinations. Each destination is scored across three criteria: security, tourism product/infrastructure and tourism development plans. Using this weighting mechanism, in conjunction with econometrically calculated outbound travel, the model calculates the only set of globally consistent forecasts at the detail of origin-destination pairs.
How does TIA analyze the market share data reported?
TIA compares the total volume of outbound travel to the number of U.S. arrivals from each of the top tourism generating countries. TIA also compares the total volume of long-haul travel to the number of U.S. arrivals from each country. Comparing the long-haul volume to U.S. arrivals calculates the Market Share Indicator.
What is the difference between MSI Online and the Market Share Indicator report?
MSI Online is an interactive database that still provides all the data featured in the written report. Users can generate customized tables by year, country, or economic indicator. The advantage to the online database is that tables can be customized by only the variables specified, and printed as needed.
The Market Share Indicator report was published as a book up through 1999. It provided detailed analysis and interpretation of the Market Share Indicator data, along with relevant background and significant events for each country profiled. The Market Share Indicator report also included charts for each of the primary countries and regions with which the U.S. competes for visitors.
The Market Share Indicator report is no longer published in book form. Instead all the content and analysis are now available here, online, as the MSI Online interactive database and MSI Country Analyses.
Why should I use the Market Share Indicator?
MSI will help you better understand the flow of international travel to the United States though its Market Share Indicator Report. This analysis of the United State's share of long-haul travel from twenty-five of the top tourism generating countries to the U.S includes the U.S. market share (the MSI), outbound and long-haul travel figures, economic indicators for the past ten years, and short term forecasts for all twenty-five countries.
TIA created the Market Share Indicator Report and MSI Online to support the Industry's efforts to increase travel to the U.S. by giving travel professionals information about which countries generate outbound tourism and what share is coming to the U.S. Trends in outbound travel, GDP growth, currency fluctuations and other economic indicators can be readily related to U.S. arrivals and changes in U.S. market share.
How do I use MSI Online, the Market Share Indicator online database?
MSI Online provides a ten year time series and short term forecast of travel market and U.S. market share statistics for twenty-five of the top tourism generating countries in an interactive searchable format. By choosing search criteria from the drop down menus, users can generate tables that detail changes over time in travel volumes, market share, and economic indicators that affect travel.
Search by country, year, or indicator to create a table to show trends in travel market volume, U.S arrivals, Real GDP, currency fluctuations and other economic indicators that can be readily associated with changes in the U.S. market share. This information is key to a marketing strategy tailored for each international market.
How is MSI presented?
MSI information is available in three different presentations:
· The MSI Summary of U.S. Market Share provides a quick overview of the U.S. market share for the 25 countries in MSI. The online summary shows the U.S. market share over ten years at five-year intervals, plus the past and current year.
· The MSI Online Database allows you to search by country, year, or indicator in order to make customized tables of travel and economic information. One search can even be graphed. Through our search you can compare trends over time for one country or multiple countries and compare indicators for one year, or multiple countries and years for one indicator.
· The MSI Online Country Analyses provide detailed interpretation of the Market Share Indicator data and relevant background information including politics, economic conditions and significant events. Each country analysis includes two competitive charts: one that shows each of the primary countries and one that shows each of the primary regions with which the U.S. competes for visitors from that country
How are countries chosen for the Market Share Indicator?
MSI currently analyzes 25 of the top tourism-generating countries for the United States, as identified by Office of Travel and Tourism Industries/International Trade Administration. The current data available on this Web site may differ from earlier Web data and from data published in earlier reports due to data revisions.
What significant factors are considered in the Market Share Indicator Country Analyses?
TIA recognizes that many factors influence travel trends including local economies, world events, the value of a local currency compared to the U.S. dollar, as well as strong marketing campaigns. Total U.S. arrivals, by itself, is not necessarily the best indicator of how well the U.S. is doing relative to other long-haul destinations.
The MSI Country Analyses examines recent economic and travel indicators for each country in MSI Online, and provides competitive regional and country destination charts. These analyses not only show the performance of the U.S. compared to other long-haul destinations but provide insight into the potential of each country as a tourism generator for the U.S. MSI Country Analyses are essential reading for anyone planning an international marketing campaign.
(Note: MSI Country Analyses takes the place of the written analyses in the Market Share Indicator Report, which was published in book form until 1999)
Top 26 Tourism-generating countries for the United States
in 2004 in descending order of annual arrivals are:
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CANADA |
13,854,000 |
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VENEZUELA |
330,285 |
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MEXICO |
11,906,000 |
INDIA |
308,845 |
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UNITED KINGDOM |
4,302,737 |
ROC (TAIWAN) |
297,684 |
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JAPAN |
3,747,620 |
COLOMBIA |
295,371 |
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GERMANY |
1,319,904 |
ISRAEL |
275,373 |
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FRANCE |
775,274 |
BAHAMAS |
265,681 |
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SOUTH KOREA |
626,595 |
SWEDEN |
254,258 |
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AUSTRALIA |
519,955 |
SWITZERLAND |
243,186 |
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ITALY |
470,805 |
CHINA, PRC |
202,544 |
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NETHERLANDS |
424,872 |
EL SALVADOR |
181,209 |
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BRAZIL |
384,734 |
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC |
180,048 |
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IRELAND |
345,119 |
BELGIUM |
175,997 |
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SPAIN |
333,432 |
ARGENTINA |
167,726 |
Updated February 2006
Where does MSI online's information come from?
MSI Online's primary data source is Global Insight's Global Tourism Navigator (GTN), a highly regarded source of timely, accurate global tourism and economic data. Global Insight collects data for GTN on a continual basis in order to provide the most recently published data for over 150 countries from every world region. GTN data comes from numerous major world sources including NTO's, intergovernmental organizations that collect data from their member countries, and from every major statistics office in the world. All of Global Insight's GTN tourism data is checked for accuracy and consistency over time.
The MSI Online forecasts are based on the current Global Insight economic outlook. They are derived using an econometric model for estimating origin and destination travel across over 150 countries. This model is the first of its kind to be built around a consistent set of macroeconomic and demographic forecast drivers. Global Insight's economic forecasts for real income, exchange rates, prices and population are used to determine demand for travel by origin market. Origin markets are then linked with destinations according to current travel trends and weighted for all destinations. Each destination is scored across three criteria: security, tourism product/infrastructure and tourism development plans. Using this weighting mechanism, in conjunction with econometrically calculated outbound travel, the model calculates the only set of globally consistent forecasts at the detail of origin-destination pairs.
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
International Traveler
The World Tourisim Organization defines an international traveler as "any person who travels to a country other than that in which he/she has his/her usual residence but outside his/her usual environment for a period not exceeding 12 months and whose main purpose is other than an activity remunerated from within the place visited."
Long Haul % Share of Outbound
The number of long-haul travelers from a specific country divided by the total number of international outbound travelers from that country, shown as a percent.
MSI
Market Share Indicator. This is the total number of arrivals from a specific country to the United States divided by the total number of long-haul travelers from that country, shown as a percent.
% Change in Consumer Prices
The percent change in the Consumer Price Index for the current year compared to the previous year.
% Change in Long Haul
Percent change in the number of long-haul travelers from a specific country for the current year compared to the previous year.
% Change in Real GDP
The percent change in real (i.e., adjusted for inflation) Gross Domestic Product for the current year compared to the previous year.
% Change in Real Private Consumption
The percent change in real (adjusted for inflation) non-governmental (i.e., by consumers and businesses) spending for the current year compared to the previous year.
% Change in U.S. Dollar/Local Currency
The percent change in the average amount of U.S. currency purchased by one unit of a country's local currency for the current year compared to the previous year. A negative change means less buying power for the visitor in the United States.
% Change in U.S. Arrivals
The percent change in the number of arrivals to the United States from a country to the United States for the current year compared to the previous year.
% Change in Real Exchange Rate
The percent change in Real Exchange Rate measures the change in the value of a local currency against a basket of world currencies adjusted for inflation, for the current year compared to the previous year. An increase indicates a local currency's appreciation against other world currencies, while a decrease indicates depreciation. A negative change means less buying power for a visitor to many other countries besides his country of residence.
Total Long-Haul
The total number of travelers from a specific country to all other countries outside the country's world region. Long-haul travel from Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan is travel to countries outside of the East Asia/Pacific region, as defined by WTO. Long-haul travel from Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela is travel to countries outside of South America. Long-haul travel from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom is travel to countries outside of Europe. Long-haul travel from Israel is travel to countries outside of the Middle East. For international travel from Canada and Mexico, all outbound travel from these two countries was included in this analysis.
Total Outbound
Total Outbound travel figures are derived by Global Insight using arrivals to the world from each country to each over 150 countries worldwide. This number may exceed the count of total departures reported by specific countries, as each departure may generate more than one world arrival.
Unemployment Rate
The rate of unemployment is the percent of persons 16 years of age and older who do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work. The unemployment rate is unemployment expressed as a percent of the labor force.
U.S. Arrivals
The number of non-U.S. residents traveling from a specific country to the United States, as counted by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service and reported by Office of Travel and Tourism Industries/International Trade Administration.
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