IVIS Country Analysis – Germany

GERMANY

1,180,212 Arrivals in the United States

Loss of 9,644 over 2002, -0.8%

14.9% of all German Long-Haul Travel

-2.0% over 2002

SUMMARY

Germans are the world's most active international travelers, accounting for nearly 77 million arrivals to destinations worldwide in 2003. Still, total outbound travel was flat in 2003 year-over-year, and long-haul travel from Germany increased only a meager 1.2 percent over 2002. German travel to the U.S. was also flat, declining 0.8 percent. Yet, this little decline, coupled with the small rise in long-haul travel, resulted in a U.S. long-haul market share (MSI) of 14.9 percent, down 2.0 percent from 2002. The U.S. has been steadily losing market share of German travel for the past ten years.

In 2003, the German economy was flat and nearly in recession. Real GDP saw a slight decline of 0.1 percent over 2002. Real private consumption decreased 0.2 percent year-on-year, and the unemployment rate surpassed 10 percent. Consumer prices rose just 1.1 percent, well under the EU targeted inflation ceiling.

The German currency is now the euro. (To maintain a ten-year trend, the MSI online database shows the value of each eurozone country's currency in terms of the country's former local currency. The rate of change, however, is based on the euro after 1998, the year local currencies pegged to the euro.) After appreciating 5.5 percent against the dollar in 2002, the average exchange rate for the euro in 2003 showed appreciation of 19.5 percent over 2002. Typically, a stronger currency helps to attract travelers to the U.S., but Germany was an exception in 2003.

The United States was the top long-haul country destination for German travelers in 2003, receiving 14.9 percent of the market. Egypt was second in popularity with 11.8 percent of the long-haul market and Tunisia (11.3%) was a close third. Thailand was fourth in popularity with a 4.8 percent market share followed by Canada and China both with 3.2 percent of the German long-haul market. Egypt was the only one of these country destinations to gain market share of the German long-haul market in 2003.

Source: Global Insight

In 2003, Africa was the most popular regional destination for German long-haul travelers, earning more than one-third (35.7%) of the market. Asia earned nearly one-quarter (23.2%) followed by the U.S. with 14.9 percent of the German long-haul market. Other popular regional destinations were South/Central America (8.4%) and the Caribbean (8.2%). In 2003, Africa and the Caribbean both gained market share of German long-haul travel.

Source: Global Insight